Tuesday, January 23, 2018


Today's Best Mansionwww.todaysbestmansionsforsale.com

It's lavish. It's huge. It's grand. It's expensive.

#1     14 North 2941 County Road, Kremmling, CO 80459 with 5 bedrooms, 12 baths, and 14,566 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $39,800,000



High Plains Ranch is Colorado's finest legacy recreational ranch. Over 6000 acres of majestic Colorado Rockies offering trophy hunting, private skiing, snowmobiliing, pristine lake and river fly fishing, professional sporting days.   From this incredible setting, the splendor of the Rocky Mountains can be enjoyed - dramatic sunrises and sunsets, abundant wildlife, colorful rainbows and a night sky full of stars from horizon to horizon.  



















Today's Top Real Estate News 
Will Higher Rates and Tax Changes Derail Housing Market?

By Jann Swanson
Mortgage News Daily



The new tax law will have the biggest impact on the market for luxury homes such as this one in the Pacific Heights neighborhood of San Francisco.                             


Last year's Federal Reserve actions, raising the target interest rate three times, led to about a 0.75 percentage point increase in the 1-year Constant Maturity Treasury (CMT) note, while the 10-year CMT note barely moved. Freddie Mac's Economic and Housing Research group says this flattening of the yield curve could be a bad sign for future economic growth.  Especially should that curve become "inverted."

Freddie Mac says they don't expect the trend to continue, instead they expect long-term rates will also follow the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) anticipated actions in 2018, for three or four more rate hikes, and head higher.

Writing in the current edition of Outlook, the economists say the new Tax Cuts and Jobs Act bill's lower corporate tax rate should boost GDP growth by a about a quarter point this year.  Along with continuing job growth, this should will lead to a modest uptick in consumer price inflation, allowing the FOMC to institute rate hikes gradually.

Will higher rates derail the housing market? A spike like that in the spring of 2013 would certainly slow it down, they say, but the expected gradual increase should allow the market to maintain momentum. They also expect some impact from the tax reform bill.

With the doubling of the standard deduction and a lower cap on the mortgage interest deduction (MID), the new law reduces to incentives to own rather than rent, and will, on the margins, lead to fewer homebuyers. However, there will also be a countervailing impact from higher after-tax incomes and a general macroeconomic effect.

One way to think about the tax impact on housing markets is to consider the user cost of housing, which reflects the true economic cost of homeownership. They suggest a calculation of those costs, which appears to mirror those the Urban Institute provided last week, and predict where those calculations are averaged across households, the direct impact is rather small-something on the order of a one-time one percentage point reduction in housing values.

Even if that one-point reduction hit all at once, it's not clear how house prices would react. They are currently moving higher at about a 7-percentage point annual rate, a rate that is accelerating in some markets. Housing markets are out of balance, with demand seriously higher than supply. "In much of the country, the direct impact of the tax reform bill on housing markets will be difficult to see as it phases in amidst rapidly rising home prices."
However, if the tax reform bill significantly stokes growth and/or inflation, then mortgage rates might spike. "That would have a significant, measurable, and almost immediate negative impact on housing markets."

Freddie Mac says its baseline forecast is "sanguine" about the outlook for the economy and housing markets. But things could go wrong, and they name three of them.

Is There Another Recession on the Horizon? 

Freddie's economists aren't saying one is imminent, but they do see signs. The expansion is aging, and as the cycle grows longer "there are more opportunities to sow the seeds of the next recession."

One sign is the slope of the U.S. Treasury yield curve which will usually rise with maturity. That is, a two-year note will yield less than a 10-year note. However, if that relationship inverts, banks have difficulty earning profits and generally constrict credit, typically leading to a recession. This, the economists say, is one of the more reliable indicators of a recession.



As stated above, the curve has flattened recently.  While it isn't inverted. financial markets can change quickly.  Were the FOMC to raise the target rate, yet other economic factors kept long-term rates from following suit, then the curve could invert.

The hot labor market is another troubling sign. The 4.1 percent unemployment rate, which has held steady for several months, is well below what the Congressional Budget Offices considers to be its natural rate. However, the picture is muddled by the lack of wage inflation and the slow recovery of the employment-to-population ratio which indicate there is still some slack in the labor market. Still, history shows that an unemployment rate that stays below the natural rate for an extended period is typically followed, in two to three years, by a recession.  



Although a recession does not appear imminent, we should watch, and not discard, potential recession indicators. For example, if the FOMC goes forward with rate hikes in 2018, do long-term rates increase, or does the yield curve flatten further? If the yield curve flattens further, then Freddie Mac says its outlook may sour.

How will Housing Markets Respond as Affordability Declines?

Economic growth will probably fail to push income gains enough to keep pace with rising house prices, and affordability will decline from the historic levels enabled by low interest rates. How will housing markets respond?

The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) constructed by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports the ratio of median family income required to qualify for a conventional mortgage on the median-priced home. A value of 100 indicates the median family income is just enough to qualify for the mortgage. Higher values mean the median-income family has more than enough to qualify. Exhibit 2 shows the annual HAI from 1970 through September 2017. The HAI peaked in 2012 and has been generally declining since.  It still is well above its historical average.



Current levels of demand means the housing markets can absorb higher mortgage rates and home prices while sales continue to grow. But eventually declining affordability will impact sales.  How long will that take?

How will young adults move the housing market?

Demographic forces provide significant tailwind when housing markets confront higher interest rates house prices, and rents. Will those forces help in the current scenario, where young adults have been slow to form households and purchase homes? Will demographics move the housing market this time?

Homeownership decisions are driven by a lot of factors and in recent years marriage and fertility rates have declined, education patterns have changed, as have choices about where young people prefer to live.  Freddie Mac says more analysis is needed to determine if and when Millennials will move into homeownership and will take up the issue in next month's Outlook



Today's Top San Diego Luxury Estates


The median home value in San Diego County is $565,000. San Diego County home values have gone up 7.1% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.5% within the next year. 
The median home value in Coronado is $1,572,800. Coronado home values have gone up 3.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.3% within the next year.

The median home value in La Jolla is $1,899,900. La Jolla home values have gone up 8.9% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 4.2% within the next year.
               
The median home value in Solana Beach is $1,265,000. Solana Beach home values have gone up 13.9% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.7% within the next year. 

The median home value in Del Mar is $2,309,800. Del Mar home values have gone up 3.7% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.8% within the next year. 


The median home value in Rancho Santa Fe is $2,764,200. Rancho Santa Fe home values have gone up 5.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.7% within the next year.

#1      8084 Entrada De Luz E, San Diego, CA 92127 with 4 bedrooms, 6 baths and 6,009 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $4,250,000.
Welcome home to the prestigious, gated community of Santaluz, "Sacred Light", nicely located. This custom designed, single story open concept estate has stunning westerly views to the ocean. You will enjoy a beautiful indoor/outdoor living experience. The property boast over 8,000 square feet under roof. The outdoor living space opens w/disappearing corner walls of glass exposing the great room, kitchen and breakfast area to a secondary living space featuring outdoor cooking, fireplace & pool/spa.
















Today's Top LA Luxury Estate.


The median home value in Orange County is $699,500. Orange County home values have gone up 4.2% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.0% within the next year.

The median home value in Los Angeles County is $595,700. Los Angeles County home values have gone up 8.6% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.3% within the next year.

The median home value in Newport Beach is $1,741,900. Newport Beach home values have gone up 5.7% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.1% within the next year.

The median home value in Santa Monica is $1,520,800. Santa Monica home values have gone up 9.0% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.2% within the next year. 

The median home value in Pacific Palisades is $2,944,500. Pacific Palisades home values have gone up 9.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.8% within the next year.

The median home value in Malibu is $3,169,400. Malibu home values have gone up 10.3% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 4.0% within the next year.

The median home value in Bel Air is $3,513,900. Bel Air home values have gone up 6.7% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.1% within the next year. 

The median home value in Beverly Hills, 90210 is $5,217,600. 90210 home values have gone up 9.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.2% within the next year.

#1      1020 Ridgedale Road, Beverly Hills, CA 90210 with 5 bedrooms, 9 baths and 
8,000 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $20,000,000.


Celebrity Dream Villa in one of the finest and most prestigious streets in Beverly Hills. This newly renovated trophy compound features five bedroom suites including two master suites, and a separate guest house, an opulent floating staircase, family rooms, screening room, office, library, grand walk-in wine cellar complete with a wine tasting table, gym, billiard room, six full bathrooms, and three powder rooms. Stately rooms lead to large terraces that create a reverential connection to the minimalist designed grounds and rolling hills beyond with city views. Enjoy the Beverly Hills lifestyle at its finest.



















Today's Top Phoenix Luxury Estate 

A photo showing the skyline of Phoenix, looking north.  It shows the various buildings of the downtown area, as well as Sunnyslope Mountain in the background

The median home value in Maricopa County is $252,400. Maricopa County home values have gone up 6.9% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.1% within the next year.

The median home value in Scottsdale is $435,800. Scottsdale home values have gone up 4.9% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.4% within the next year.

The median home value in Carefree is $743,200. Carefree home values have declined -1.0% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 0.4% within the next year. 

The median home value in Paradise Valley is $1,641,900. Paradise Valley home values have gone up 1.9% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.0% within the next year.  

#1      8221 North 53rd Street, Paradise Valley, AZ 85253 with 5 bedrooms, 6 baths and 6,714 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $3,685,000.



Luxury contemporary completed Jan 2018 offers views to Mummy Mtn, a single level, open concept showcasing a great room with soaring ceilings, transom windows, fireplace, wine wall, and pocketing glass wall. Large chefs kitchen to include Wolf/Subzero appliances, quartz slab countertops, hand crafted cabinetry, walk in pantry. Master suite presents amazing views and spa like master bath with freestanding tub. 3 secondary ensuite bedrooms adjoining a separate flex room, game/media/children's space. When guests arrive, show them to the guesthouse/suite with additional family room, full kitchen, bedroom and ensuite bath. Exterior spaces include large covered patio/entertaining space, gazebo with fireplace, heated pool/spa, BBQ/outdoor kitchen, and generous landscaping.
















Today's Top San Francisco Luxury Estate

Image result for San Francisco skyline pictures

The median home value in San Francisco County is $1,293,700. San Francisco County home values have gone up 12.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 5.9% within the next year.

The median home value in Marin County is $1,094,700. Marin County home values have gone up 6.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 5.1% within the next year. 

The median home value in Santa Clara County is $1,196,600. Santa Clara County home values have gone up 21.3% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 8.5% within the next year.


The median home value in Tiburon is $2,638,200. Tiburon home values have gone up 6.1% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 4.7% within the next year.

The median home value in Sausalito is $1,362,900. Sausalito home values have gone up 6.2% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.9% within the next year. 

The median home value in Tiburon is $2,580,200. Tiburon home values have gone up 5.4% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.4% within the next year
            
The median home value in Palo Alto is $3,010,700. Palo Alto home values have gone up 21.0% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 8.3% within the next year.

The median home value in Los Altos is $3,262,900. Los Altos home values have gone up 17.9% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 7.6% within the next year.       

    
The median home value in Saratoga is $2,816,200. Saratoga home values have gone up 18.0% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 7.8% within the next year. 

The median home value in Atherton is $7,257,800. Atherton home values have gone up 16.9% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 7.4% within the next year.


#1      3334 17 Nuke Drive, Pebble Beach, CA 93953 with 4 bedrooms, 5 baths and 
4,950 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $10,500,000.

https://photos.zillowstatic.com/p_e/ISdsue69qdr2a71000000000.jpg


Fronting the 2nd fairway of the world-famous Pebble Beach Golf Links is a classic coastal estate which combines extraordinary ocean, Point Lobos and golf course views with an exceptional location. Timeless architectural design by David Allen Smith blends seamlessly into the serene 2-acre property. Sophisticated yet unpretentious best describes the single level residence. Enter into an entertainer's dream with a contemporary open kitchen/great room that expands to a sunny patio for indoor-outdoor living. Floor plan is ideal for both family living and large-scale entertaining. The private guest house guest completes the package. Within a short stroll to the best Pebble Beach amenities: The Lodge, dining, golf, spa and the beach, tennis, dining and club facilities of the prestigious Beach and Tennis Club. This is a home treasured by the fortunate few who have lived there. It is now your opportunity to live the lifestyle of your dreams in the place of your dreams. 








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Today's Top Seattle Luxury Estate

Image result for Seattle  
The median home value in King County is $608,000.  King County home values have gone up 15.4% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 6.0% within the next year.

The median home value in Kirkland is $727,500. Kirkland home values have gone up 21.3% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 6.9% within the next year

The median home value in Seattle is $718,700. Seattle home values have gone up 16.2% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 5.7% within the next year.

The median home value in Bellevue is $881,000. Bellevue home values have gone up 17.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 5.8% within the next year.

The median home value in Mercer Island is $1,441,600. Mercer Island home values have gone up 8.1% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 4.0% within the next year. 

The median home value in Clyde Hill is $2,680,500. Clyde Hill home values have gone up 18.3% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 7.2% within the next year.

The median home value in Medina is $2,720,300. Medina home values have gone up 13.0% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 5.8% within the next year.

#1      7814 NE 8th Street, Medina, WA 98039 with 5 bedrooms, 6 baths and 5,500 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $3,349,800.




Builders own home in Medina by Lexington Fine Homes. Unequivocally the finest Northwest interpretation of craftsman style. A private enclave offers well edited outdoor entertaining patios, decks and lawns with ample interior living spaces. 5 bedrooms, 6 baths, Den, Rec Room, Media and Wine Cellar in a 5500 square foot 2 story + basement. Best Medina location close to beach, park and school. Superlative in every detail for those of discerning taste seeking enduring value with the right address.
















Today's Best Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Rates Set Another 9-Month High
Jan 22 2018, 4:34PM


Mortgage rates pushed up to yet another 9-month high today--something that's become all too common in the past few weeks.  Just as troubling is the fact that 10yr Treasury yields--the bigger, more important neighbor that shares the street with mortgage rates--are operating at their highest levels since early 2014.  Mortgage rates aren't directly tied to Treasury yields, but big momentum in Treasuries tends to spill over. 

Incidentally, both Treasuries and MBS (the mortgage-backed-securities that underlie mortgage rates) were roughly unchanged today.  The problem is they were much weaker on Friday afternoon and mortgage lenders didn't fully adjust for that fact with Friday's rate sheets.  That left them with a bit of catching up to do this morning.  In other words, lenders needed to push their rates just a bit higher to get caught up with Friday's market movements. 

It's still smart and safe to remain defensive in terms of locking vs floating.  Plan on the pain continuing until we have a clear indication that rates have initiated a counterattack.
                                                                                                                                52 Weeks
ProductTodayYesterdayChangeLowHigh
30 Yr FRM4.27%4.23%+0.043.84%4.39%
15 Yr FRM3.64%3.59%+0.053.12%3.64%
FHA 30 Year Fixed4.05%4.00%+0.053.35%4.05%
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed4.40%4.36%+0.044.10%4.60%
5/1 Yr ARM3.33%3.29%+0.042.98%3.33%
Looking for more information?  Have a comment regarding any of today's 
mansions?  Need a Realtor referral?  Please text or email me at 619-944-8749 
or furtree @msn.com. Most importantly, have a great day.

Cordially,

Tom


PS.   Thank you for reading my blogs. Today's Best Mansions has now been read by over 150,000 individuals!