Monday, November 13, 2017




Today's Best Mansionwww.todaysbestmansionsforsale.com

It's lavish. It's huge. It's grand. It's expensive.

#1      400 Smastha Drive, Key Biscayne, Florida 33149 with 5 bedrooms, 7 baths and 9,619 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $31,900,000.




Coined The 1000 Year House by renowned architect Charles Pawley. Strategically built on a 38k square feet peninsula with 480 feet of waterfront on prestigious Mashta Island. Unimpeded wide panoramic views of the ocean, Bill Baggs Park, Cape Florida Light House and Stiltsville. This 12k square feet home is comprised of 5 bedrooms/6.5 baths which include 2 master bedrooms, theater, gym, library and staff qtrs. Covered gazebo and massive terraces with a resort pool/spa. Protected deep water dock accommodates a 100 plus foot yacht.
















Today's Top San Diego Luxury Estates

      
The median home value in San Diego County is $553,900. San Diego County home values have gone up 6.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.9% within the next year.

The median home value in Coronado is $1,481,600. Coronado home values have gone up 2.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 0.6% within the next year. 

The median home value in La Jolla 92037 is $1,544,300. 92037 home values have gone up 6.9% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.4% within the next year.         

The median home value in Solona Beach 92075 is $1,295,200. 92075 home values have declined -3.0% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.6% within the next year.

The median home value in  Del Mar 92014 is $1,616,500. 92014 home values have gone up 2.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.4% within the next year.

The median home value in Rancho Santa Fe is $2,682,700. Rancho Santa Fe home values have gone up 3.1% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.1% within the next year.

#1       7164 Rancho La Cima Drive, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067 with 5  bedrooms, 7 baths and 7,728 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $4,395,000.


First time offered for sale......set behind the exclusive and private guard gated community of Rancho La Cima in Rancho Santa Fe, set on a beautiful lushly landscaped 2.06 acres. This single level custom estate is breathtakingly stunning....7,727 sq feet of impeccable details and high end custom finishes in a light and airy environment. Twelve foot wood and glass doors greet you as you enter the grand foyer.


















Today's Top LA Luxury Estate.


The median home value in Orange County is $691,600. Orange County home values have gone up 4.3% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 0.8% within the next year.

The median home value in Los Angeles County is $574,400. Los Angeles County home values have gone up 6.7% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.4% within the next year.

The median home value in Newport Beach is $1,633,100. Newport Beach home values have gone up 1.6% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.9% within the next year. 

The median home value in Santa Monica is $1,398,900. Santa Monica home values have gone up 0.3% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will fall -0.1% within the next year.

The median home value in Brentwood 90049 is $2,391,500. 90049 home values have gone up 0.6% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will fall -0.9% within the next year.

The median home value in Pacific Palisades is $2,724,500. Pacific Palisades home values have gone up 4.4% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 0.9% within the next year.

The median home value in Malibu is $2,958,800. Malibu home values have gone up 8.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.3% within the next year.

The median home value in Bel Air is $3,316,800. Bel Air home values have gone up 3.7% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 0.2% within the next year

The median home value in Beverly Hills 90210 is $4,855,000. 90210 home values have gone up .54% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 0.8% within the next year.

#1      1123 El Retiro Way, Beverly Hills, CA 90210 with 6 bedrooms, 9 baths and more than 7,000 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $19,995,000.



Prime North of Sunset Location in the most prestigious area of a Beverly Hills. This magnificent tennis court estate features five bedrooms and 6 baths plus a huge guest house larger then some homes on the 500 block!Featuring a magnificent double staircase, formal living room, dining room, family room and gourmet kitchen, theatre, and one of the greatest master suites in Los Angeles. This home features the most exquisite custom attention to detail you have ever seen. Play a game of tennis, or indulge in the pool! This is an entertainers dream located on one of the best blocks in Beverly Hills and surrounded by some of the most expensive homes in the city.














    Today's Top Phoenix Luxury Estate 

    A photo showing the skyline of Phoenix, looking north.  It shows the various buildings of the downtown area, as well as Sunnyslope Mountain in the background

    The median home value in Maricopa County is $246,900. Maricopa County home values have gone up 6.4% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.8% within the next year.

    The median home value in Scottsdale is $427,700. Scottsdale home values have gone up 3.9% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.9% within the next year. 

    The median home value in Carefree is $744,800. Carefree home values have gone up 3.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.7% within the next year

    The median home value in Paradise Valley is $1,616,600. Paradise Valley home values have gone up 2.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.5% within the next year.

    #1      9744 East Madera Drive, Scottsdale, AZ 85262 with 4 bedrooms, 6 baths and 7,570 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $4,000,000.



    Architecture Par Excellence by Lee Hutchison joined with sought after builder, Manship Homes, creates this magnificent home sitting on almost 2 acres (2 lots) above the 12th hole of the Geronimo Golf Course offering supreme golf course, sunset and mountain views. The dynamic courtyard entrance with fireplace sets the mood for this timeless Arizona desert contemporary. The unique ceiling details, circular, angled walls and the organic use of metal, wood, glass and stone bring warmth and comfort into the home. The flowing split floor plan encourages substantial festivities as well as small gatherings with space for all. Enjoy the private outdoor living attributes: the negative edge pool with water-fall features and spa, the stone fireplace, a putting green, Al Fresco dining, grilling, sunning and living space, all with magical golf course, sunset and mountain views. A membership is available through the Desert Mountain Club. Lot 63 is included in the list price.















    Today's Top San Francisco Luxury Estate

    Image result for San Francisco skyline pictures

    The median home value in San Francisco County is $1,237,100. San Francisco County home values have gone up 11.0% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.3% within the next year.

    The median home value in Marin County is $1,044,300. Marin County home values have gone up 5.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.7% within the next year. 

    The median home value in Santa Clara County is $1,068,000. Santa Clara County home values have gone up 10.0% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.6% within the next year.        

    The median home value in Sausalito is $1,292,200. Sausalito home values have gone up 7.2% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.3% within the next year.                
    The median home value in Tiburon is $2,510,000. Tiburon home values have gone up 5.7% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 0.7% within the next year. 

    The median home value in Palo Alto is $2,695,000. Palo Alto home values have gone up 8.3% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.9% within the next year.

    The median home value in Los Altos is $2,873,100. Los Altos home values have gone up 4.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.5% within the next year

    The median home value in Saratoga is $2,560,300. Saratoga home values have gone up 8.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.9% within the next year.   

    The median home value in Atherton is $6,440,300. Atherton home values have gone up 4.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.7% within the next year.    

      #1     96 Douglass Way, Atherton, CA 94027 with 5 bedrooms, 7 baths and 6,269 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $11,600,000.


    Impeccable Atherton estate, completely remodeled in 2010, nestled in a serene cul-de-sac boasts 6,269 sq ft of indoor-outdoor living. 5BR, study/bonus room, 5BA & 2 half BA. 3/4 acre grounds w/gated, oversized driveway & lush landscape for utmost intimacy. 3 car garage w/800 sq ft attic. Main floor awes w/formal & casual dining spaces, wine room, 2 fireplaces, family room & formal living opening to outdoor oasis. Kitchen delights w/opulent marble & quartzite counters, wine fridge & Miele appliances. Stunning secondary master suite opens to lounge. Office w/full bath leads to garden. Elegant upstairs master wing w/limestone fireplace. Boasts lavish spa bath w/soaking tub, rain shower, 2 his/her walk-in closets & bedroom/bonus room. Separate wing w/2 spacious bedrooms & Jack/Jill bathroom w/jetted tub & shower. Indoor gatherings transition seamlessly outdoors. Multiple dining & entertaining spaces, TV, fireplace, kitchen, multi-sport court, pool, spa. Direct gate to Menlo School        
















    Today's Top Seattle Luxury Estate

    Image result for Seattle  
    The median home value in King County is $589,700. King County home values have gone up 14.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 6.3% within the next year.

    The median home value in Kirkland is $700,000. Kirkland home values have gone up 18.6%  over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 7.2% within the next year.

    The median home value in Seattle is $695,600. Seattle home values have gone up 14.6% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 6.1% within the next year.

    The median home value in Bellevue is $846,500. Bellevue home values have gone up 15.0% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 6.0% within the next year.

    The median home value in Mercer Island is $1,391,900. Mercer Island home values have gone up 8.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 4.0% within the next year.

    The median home value in Clyde Hill is $2,646,700. Clyde Hill home values have gone up 19.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 7.8% within the next year.             

    The median home value in Medina is $2,698,700. Medina home values have gone up 18.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 6.5% within the next year.

    #1     100 Vista View, North Bend, WA 98045 with 5 bedrooms, 6 baths and 9,960 sq.ft. is listed for sale $7,775,000.


    Nestled in the Foothills of the Cascade Mt. Range, spread over 60 acres, this North Bend, Northwest inspired Estate is one of the most unique riverfront homes in the PNW. Built by James Strode & masterfully designed by Architect, Robert Edison Swain, this home is known for its serenity, grandeur & seamless materials, conceptually bringing the outside in. Come see all that this Estate has to offer.























    Today's Best Mortgage Rates
    Mortgage Rates Jump to 2-Week Highs
    Nov 10 2017, 3:31PM

    What a difference 2 days make! Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey was out yesterday prompting multiple news outlets to declare "slightly lower rates" on the week.  Given that Freddie's survey only gathers responses through any given Wednesday, the results jived with what we were seeing on lenders' actual rate sheets.

    On Wednesday, mortgage rates were indeed at their best levels in more than 3 weeks.  But after 2 days of relatively abrupt weakness, rates quickly find themselves at the highest levels in 2 weeks.  Adding to the frustration is the absence of any single, obvious motivation for the weakness.  In order to account for it, we'd have to discuss several esoteric developments in bond markets (if you're into that sort of thing, I go into more detail in the MBS Commentary channel). 

    One simple development is "uncertainty."  Oftentimes, uncertainty helps bonds  because it raises questions about economic progress.  Investors move money into bonds (which pushes rates lower) to avoid the volatility or weakness they might be worried about seeing in stocks.  In the case of dueling banjos belting out tax reform tunes (both the House and Senate have drafted bills), the uncertainty is more neutral.  It doesn't necessarily imply potential weakness or strength in stocks or bonds, so both have given up some ground over the past 3 days.  To reiterate, that's just one of several potential factors at the moment.
    Regardless of causality, the movement itself is disconcerting.  It places the short-term trend squarely in negative territory (i.e. pointed toward higher rates until further notice).

                                                                                                                                  52 Weeks

    ProductTodayYesterdayChangeLowHigh
    30 Yr FRM4.01%3.96%+0.053.84%4.39%
    15 Yr FRM3.31%3.27%+0.043.12%3.61%
    FHA 30 Year Fixed3.60%3.55%+0.053.35%4.10%
    Jumbo 30 Year Fixed4.18%4.15%+0.034.08%4.60%
    5/1 Yr ARM3.20%3.15%+0.052.95%3.25%
    Today's Top Real Estate News Article
    It's Not a Bubble if it Doesn't Burst

    By Jann Swanson
    Mortgage News Dailt

    Someone must have passed a law; if it is November, you must publish something debunking bubbles.  The saturation point is near, but the latest contribution, from Freddie Mac's Chief Economist Sean Becketti, provides a better (and much longer) analysis than most, so we will attempt to summarize his arguments as to why, despite rapidly rising home prices, we aren't in a bubble.  Or as he says, "Not yet."

    The concern, he says, is understandable. Scars remain from the last bubble and there are plenty of warning signs regarding a new one:
    • House prices have been on a tear for the last five years, growing about twice as fast as the long-run average and outpacing income growth by a cumulative 42 percent over the last 17 years;
    • The number of large metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with unusually-high house-price-to-income ratios has grown from five in 2011 to 17 today. At the height of the last bubble there were 27.
    • An increasing share of MSAs with relatively stable construction costs nonetheless have suspiciously high house prices per square foot.
    It is difficult to spot a bubble before it bursts, but Becketti says there are three defining characteristics.  First, they are fueled by self-fulfilling predictions, i.e. prices rise simply because people expect them to. Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller called them "a kind of social epidemic" where price increases generate enthusiasm among investors, who then bid prices higher. The feedback continues until prices get too high, and the bubble bursts.

    That is the second defining feature of bubbles, they do indeed burst. Not just correct, a normal part of the ups and downs of asset prices, but crash, reflecting a sudden realization that prices have become unsupportable.

    The third defining feature is the central role easy credit plays in their growth.  When lenders begin to believe that price increases can go on forever, they grow less concerned about whether borrowers can repay the loan.  Bubbles collapse when lenders finally get worried and restrict riskier types of credit. Paradoxically, Becketti says, in the last decade lenders restricted credit, thus pricking the housing bubble and triggering the burst they were trying to avoid.

    Hunting for bubbles is problematic.  Since prices might make a soft landing, it is tempting to monitor conditions a bit longer rather than act.  Identifying a bubble can spook people and trigger a crash that didn't need to happen. Becketti admits that Freddie Mac is "stuck." A potentially-destructive house price bubble "is one of the key risks we have to manage as best we can."

    The company has talked before about its two-part approach to identifying bubbles, first by comparing the current median house price to the median income (PTI) ratio to a historical norm of 3.5. They have found a national PTI above 4.1 is unusual enough to merit further analysis. It broke through that outlier in 2004, started to collapse in 2006, hitting bottom at 3.3 in 2011. It is currently approaching, but is still under the 4.1 threshold. Because bubbles can be local or regional, Freddie Mac also tracks the PTI ratios for the 50 largest metro areas and as noted earlier, 17 are currently a cause for concern.



    In addition to a high PTI ratio Freddie Mac looks for three other types of evidence. First, can high prices be attributed to economic fundamentals or are they a mass delusion that prices can rise forever?  Today the lack of inventory is affecting virtually all of the large metros and houses are not being built fast enough to close that gap. It appears that construction is unlikely to increase fast enough to close the shortfall of houses for several more years. The rate of new home construction is falling approximately a half-million houses short of what is needed to meet demand.



    The inventory shortage is strong evidence against a price bubble and the slow rate of increase in construction suggests any eventual price adjustment will be gradual rather than a collapse.

    A second piece of evidence is a bubbles' reliance on easy credit. Freddie Mac looks for signs of credit deterioration. Increasing delinquencies and defaults tend to appear very late in a bubble's life, so it isn't surprising that the company's book of business "has exhibited stellar credit performance to date."  

    A much earlier sign is an increase in leverage; declining home equity. But the reverse is currently the case.  While house prices have risen rapidly since 2001, outstanding mortgage debt has barely budged. "Homeowners, at least in aggregate, are not funding a spending spree with the equity in their homes."

    So far, no sign of an imminent bubble, however there are those fast-rising home prices. Becketti says maybe they are looking in the wrong places for evidence. The national PTI ratio provided plenty of early warning about the last bubble, enough to have taken corrective action before It burst. But one possible warning sign isn't enough, confirming evidence is needed.

    There were other signs preceding the last price collapse and by comparing those metrics' previous-to-current behavior, a body of evidence might accumulate that warns of a building bubble, or convinces that one isn't imminent. One of these is flipping. Shiller says a sharp increase in flipping-buying a house and fixing it up for quick resale-may have contributed to the last bubble as it indicates that speculators are projecting future appreciation.

    The percentage of homes that were flipped rose sharply in 2004 to 2006. In Exhibit 6, the two horizonal lines serve as provisional thresholds; When flipping crosses the lower one it should alert us to look for other signs of overvaluation. When it crosses the upper line, the bubble may have already grown to dangerous levels.



    From 2010 when prices were still falling through 2014 when prices were rising rapidly the share of flipping exceeded the lower threshold but not the upper one.  Flipping in the early years probably reflected investor purchases of distressed properties. In the last two years the high rate of flipping probably reflected both continued distressed purchases and a growing belief among investors that the crisis was over. After 2014, flipping returned below the lower threshold and doesn't appear to indicate a bubble.

    The price of a house per square foot (PSF) is determined by the costs of construction and of land. Construction costs have increased over time, but the rate has been moderate and fairly stable, so where buildable land is plentiful and land use restrictions modest, the PSF of new construction should remain stable as well.  This stability normally holds down the PSF of existing houses as well.

    This relationship however doesn't hold in cities where there are constraints on buildable land. In cities like San Francisco and Seattle, the increase in demand for houses produces sharp increases in price, but very few houses. Thus, swings in demand in such cities can generate big swings in the PSF of new houses.

    In other places with few restrictions on building, the PSF of a new house should track construction costs and remain reasonably stable despite swings in demand. In these cities, like Kansas City or Dallas, sharp increases PSF are likely to indicate a house price increase that cannot be sustained.

    Exhibit 7 displays the average, inflation-adjusted price per square foot of both new and existing houses. This average increased steadily prior to the house price collapse, plunged during the collapse and recession, and resumed increasing after 2011. Today the average remains below the 2004 level.



    While the evidence does not point to a bubble, how long can house prices appreciate at twice their historical average? Becketti says that historically house prices have managed to deviate from economic fundamentals for long periods of time. But surely there is a limit to the PTI ratio. The median income today is roughly $60,000; can that really buy a $600,000 house? A $1,000,000 house? A $2,000,000 house?

    Underwriting standards place a limit on the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio because a high one indicates a borrower may be unable to meet all their obligations at some future date. A high DTI is the most common reason a mortgage application is rejected.\

    In some cases, borrowers can qualify for a mortgage with a DTI as high as 50 percent. Exhibit 14 displays the percentage of recent borrowers whose DTI ratio would exceed 50 percent at various hypothetical increases in house prices. House prices would have to rise more than 90 percent before half these borrowers would breach that limit. As prices have increased by a cumulative 43 percent since 2011, it appears they can increase a lot more before pricing a significant share of borrowers out of the market.



    The long-term relationship between house prices and incomes is always restored eventually. Perhaps several years from now inventory shortages will disappear, and supply and demand will balance, putting house prices more in line with household income.
    How will that happen? Will it again be a sudden disruptive correction that roils the economy or is a soft landing likely? Becketti proposes a few possibilities.
    In his first scenario, a soft landing could result as increases in residential construction eventually slow price gains. Construction is currently trending slowly upward. That slow pace is not all bad as it prevents a sudden drop in house prices that could hurt recent homebuyers.

    Baby Boomers have been slower than their ancestors to sell the family home, exacerbating the inventory shortages. Eventually increasing age and mortality will release more homes onto the market. This trend will also be gradual, cushioning the market against sudden price declines.

    Millennials' slow entry into homebuying has contributed to a low homeownership rate. If this continues it will take some of the heat out of housing demand.

    A second scenario would have homeownership remain low while renter households increase. This could occur if residential construction doesn't pick up, and/or if Federal Reserve actions increase interest rates significantly. Either will lessen housing affordability. Regulatory constraints are likely to grow as existing homeowners lobby to protect their homes' value.

    This would restore equilibrium by creating a permanent division between the housing "Haves" and "Have Nots." First-time homebuyers and moderate-income households would face severe challenges, bifurcating homeownership between the affluent and everyone else.  Wealth inequality would grow as fewer households take advantage of the wealth-building associated with homeownership. Single family rentals would increase, particularly if regulatory constraints limit higher-density, multifamily development.

    The final scenario pictures a worsening of the current imbalance between supply and demand, eventually creating a bubble where none currently exists. A few more years of rapid price increases could erase memories of the last crash and reset expectations of future house prices higher.  Some bad pre-crash practices, such as borrowing against home equity, could return.  The cycle of house price increases followed by additional borrowing eventually becomes unsustainable, and the bubble bursts.

    While evidence indicates there is no current price bubble, the housing sector is significantly out of balance.  What can't be predicted is how this imbalance will be resolved.
    Looking for more information?  Have a comment?  Need a Realtor referral?  Please call, text or email me at 619-944-8749 or furtree @msn.com. Most importantly, have a great day.

    Cordially,

    Tom Furino