Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Today's Top Three Luxury Estates in San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco 
and Seattle Listed For Sale

                                           .                          
                                      
                                   "A mansion is a large and stately dwelling"
The word mansion derives through Old French from the Latin word mansio "dwelling", an abstract noun derived from the verb manere "to dwell". The English word "manse" originally defined a property large enough for the parish priest to maintain himself, but a mansion is no longer self-sustaining in this way.  'Manor' comes from the same root—territorial holdings granted to a lord who would remain there—hence it is easy to see how the word 'Mansion' came to have its meaning.  Windsor Castle located in Berkshire, England is the largest mansion in the world with around 484,000 sq.ft 



Today's Top Three Mansions

#1     400 S Mashta Drive, Key Biscayne, Florida with 5 bedrooms, 7 baths, and  9,619 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $39,000,000.

400 S Mashta Dr, Key Biscayne, FL 33149

Coined The 1000 Year House by renowned architect Charles Pawley. Strategically built on a 38k square feet peninsula with 480 feet of waterfront on prestigious Mashta Island. Unimpeded wide panoramic views of the ocean, Bill Baggs Park, Cape Florida Light House and Stiltsville. This 12k square feet home is comprised of 5 bedrooms/6.5 baths which include 2 master bedrooms, theater, gym, library and staff qtrs. Covered gazebo and massive terraces with a resort pool/spa. Protected deep water dock accommodates a 100 plus foot yacht.

400 S Mashta Dr, Key Biscayne, FL 33149

400 S Mashta Dr, Key Biscayne, FL 33149

400 S Mashta Dr, Key Biscayne, FL 33149

400 S Mashta Dr, Key Biscayne, FL 33149

400 S Mashta Dr, Key Biscayne, FL 33149

400 S Mashta Dr, Key Biscayne, FL 33149

400 S Mashta Dr, Key Biscayne, FL 33149

400 S Mashta Dr, Key Biscayne, FL 33149

400 S Mashta Dr, Key Biscayne, FL 33149

400 S Mashta Dr, Key Biscayne, FL 33149

400 S Mashta Dr, Key Biscayne, FL 33149


#2         300 Delfern Drive, Bel Air, CA 90077 with 11 bedrooms, 16 baths and
20,000 sq.ft.+  is listed for sale at $79,000,000.


300 Delfern Dr, Los Angeles, CA 90077

The Edie Goetz Estate" is a trophy compound in the heart of Holm by Hills, sited on two contiguous properties and totaling over 4.38 acres. Available for the first time in over 25 years. A magnificent example of Georgian Revival architecture originally completed in 1938 and designed by Gordon Kaufman, classic elements include high ceilings, grand public rooms and ornate wrought iron details. In 1947, Edie Goetz engaged legendary Hollywood designer Billy Haines to enhance the main house as a showplace for lavish events. One of the most iconic rooms is the paneled art deco modern library/bar also designed by Haines. On what many consider the finest street in Los Angeles this private paradise is set behind large gates and offers complete privacy. Features of the estate include: verdant manicured grounds, 3 guest houses, 11 bedrooms, 2 swimming pools, tennis court, and rare specimen trees. A rare opportunity to own a piece of Hollywood history.


300 Delfern Dr, Los Angeles, CA 90077




300 Delfern Dr, Los Angeles, CA 90077

300 Delfern Dr, Los Angeles, CA 90077

300 Delfern Dr, Los Angeles, CA 90077

#3       834 Fifth Ave, Units 7 and 8A New YorkNY 10065 with 5 bedrooms, 10 baths and 12,000 sq.ft. is now reduced to $96,000,000.

834 Fifth Ave Units 7 & 8 A, New York, NY 10065

A once in a lifetime opportunity to live in the largest existing original apartment on Fifth Avenue. Originally listed for $120,000,000, it is situated on the 7th and 8th floors.  This magnificent front corner duplex boasts 20 rooms of unparalleled grandeur and scale. Resplendent with outstanding Central Park views, this sprawling residence features a graceful layout with beautiful hardwood flooring, soaring 12.5ft ceilings and classic original moldings.The first level of this home features a palatial entrance gallery which leads into the Central Park facing lower library and dining room. A grand staircase leads to the upper level living room which includes two fireplaces. Beyond is a gorgeous Library lined with magnificent 17th Centu ry leather walls. The owner's private quarters includes a master bedroom with an accompanying sitting room and fireplace, an original 1930's marbled and mirrored full bathroom and a dressing room with an additional adjacent full bath. Designed by renowned Manhattan architect Rosario Candela, 834 Fifth Avenue was built in 1931 and is considered to be one of his finest works. The 14-story limestone clad building consists of just 24 apartments. This legendary cooperative offers residents the highest level of service and privacy.This spectacular residence ranks as one of Rosario Candela's true architectural masterpieces.

834 Fifth Ave Units 7 & 8 A, New York, NY 10065

834 Fifth Ave Units 7 & 8 A, New York, NY 10065

834 Fifth Ave Units 7 & 8 A, New York, NY 10065


834 Fifth Ave Units 7 & 8 A, New York, NY 10065

834 Fifth Ave Units 7 & 8 A, New York, NY 10065

834 Fifth Ave Units 7 & 8 A, New York, NY 10065

Today's Real Estate News 
Home Prices Justified by Fundamentals? Or Are Things Getting Bubbly?
De 
Oct 4 2016, 10:57AM

By Jann Swanson
Mortgage News Daily

In the last four years housing prices, according to CoreLogic's Home Price Index (HPI) have risen 40 percent.  So, are we heading toward a repeat of the 2005-2006 housing bubble?  In a two-part analysis in the current issue of CoreLogic's MarketPulse, Mark Liu, principal economist, offers some reassurance.

First he defines just what a bubble is, using the words of Nobel Laureate Economist Joseph Stiglitz.  "Ideaf the reason that price is high today is only because investors believe that the selling price is high tomorrow - when 'fundamental' factors do not seem to justify such a price - then a bubble exists."  Under that definition Lieu says, the high price growth rate alone is not evidence of a housing bubble.

Instead one must identify fundamental factors in housing markets and see whether the price growth rates can be justified by these factors and then identify metrics to capture the belief that the selling price will be high tomorrow. 

Liu puts two metrics for measuring the fundamental factors; price to income and price to rent, and two for capturing Stiglitz's speculative belief.  He calls those the Flipping Index and the Fraud Index.

In the price-to-income view of housing economics there is a stable relationship in the long run between house price and income. CoreLogic's Market Condition Indicators show that the long-run sustainable HPI is derived from the historic relationship between home prices and disposable income per capita coupled with the principle that home prices cannot outpace growth in household income forever.  

Over shorter periods home prices can exceed or fall below the long-run trend but not over a longer time because housing becomes unaffordable.  At that point demand decreases causing home price growth to either slow or decline and realign with income levels in each market. 

CoreLogic calculates the gap between actual HPIs and their long-run sustainable levels and defines an overvalued market as one in which the home price is more than 10 percent above its long-run sustainable level.  

Using this metric Liu identifies 31 markets among the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) that are overvalued.  These include Seattle, Portland, and areas in California, Texas, and especially Florida.  

He puts that number in pespective with historical similarities; there were 21 overvalued CBSAs in 2002, 45 at the beginning of 2004, and 70 in January 2006.  Therefore, if the country is indeed heading toward another bubble, which he doubts, it is currently at a stage equivalent to 2003.



Another way to evaluate the market is the price-to-rent view.  Over the long run market forces should equalize the cost and benefits of owning vs renting if sufficiently liquid markets exist for each.  Single family rental units became widespread only after institutional investors started buying them during the foreclosure crisis.  

Thus CoreLogic has been tracking average and median rentals for those property types only since 2012 and it is difficult to build an adequate statistical model.  There is other historical data however showing that the price-to-rent ratio during the bubble years was at most 60 percent higher than its long-run average.  This implies that home prices can grow 60 percent faster than rent so Liu uses that as a rule of thumb to assess whether a market is overvalued.



To demonstrate this Liu graphs the results for Fort Lauderdale (Figure 3), plotting the cumulative growth of home prices (red line) and rents (blue line) since 2012.  In this case the rent growth is 27 percent and the home price growth 46 percent.  He then inflates the actual rent growth by 60 percent (yellow line) to replicate the maximum deviation of the price-to-rent ratio in the bubble years.  Any home price that is above that yellow line, as in Fort Lauderdale, is considered overvalued



Applying this price-to-rent formula to the 31 markets identified as overvalued using the Market Condition Indicate weeds out 10 that do not exceed the second metric.  This leaves mainly the West Coast, Texas, and Florida markets and a scattering in the Northeast.  

"The counterpoint is that CoreLogic's analysis doesn't seem to account for generally falling mortgage rates, or the marginal, implied cost reduction associated with the tax benefits of owning vs renting," notes MND's Matthew Graham. 

 "I have no doubt that some of these areas deserve the 'overvalued' label, but perhaps not by such clear margins as stated in the Fort Lauderdale chart.  It's good to remember that many buyers decide what value they can afford based on monthly payments, so we miss out on a modicum of relevance by comparing top-line home prices with a monthly rental payments."

Today's Top Three San Diego Luxury Estates
sandiegorealestateflashreport.com



Image result for san diego skyline art

The median home value in San Diego County is $516,200. San Diego County home values have gone up 5.2% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.9% within the next year.         

The median home value in La Jolla is $1,685,000. La Jolla home values have gone up 6.1%  over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.1% within the next year.

The median home value in Rancho Santa Fe is $2,727,800. Rancho Santa Fe home values have declined -0.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 1.9% within the next year


#1      6209 Beaumont Avenue, La Jolla, CA 92037 with 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, and 
3,600 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $2,795,000.

6209 Beaumont Ave, La Jolla, CA 92037

Gorgeous newly-modeled home on a lush 10,300 sq.ft. lot. Stylishly modern, every detail is thought of. The welcoming backyard offers a fireplace and outside dining area as well as a koi pond and fountain - an entertainer's dream. Peekaboo views of Ocean on main level and full ocean views from upstairs bedroom. This is a light, bright ray of sunshine of a home! Don't miss it!

6209 Beaumont Ave, La Jolla, CA 92037

6209 Beaumont Ave, La Jolla, CA 92037

6209 Beaumont Ave, La Jolla, CA 92037

6209 Beaumont Ave, La Jolla, CA 92037


6209 Beaumont Ave, La Jolla, CA 92037

#2      4447 La Noria, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067 with 5 bedrooms, 5 baths, and 
6,160 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $2,795,000.

4447 La Noria, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

First time on the market, this private gated estate is situated on over 4 sprawling acres on the Westside of the Covenant in Rancho Santa Fe. Beautiful, peaceful and serene with views to the Pacific Ocean. The long and meandering driveway leads you to this five bedroom estate. The residence features a kitchen/family room combination with fireplace, informal dining, bar and doors that lead to a patio overlooking the private grounds, graceful pastures and barn. 

4447 La Noria, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

4447 La Noria, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

4447 La Noria, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

4447 La Noria, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

4447 La Noria, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

4447 La Noria, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

4447 La Noria, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

4447 La Noria, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067


#3      18320 Colina Fuerte, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067 with 5 bedrooms, 5 baths, and 6237 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $5,395,000.

18320 Colina Fuerte, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

This single story Covenant home set on a private, lusciously landscaped, usable lot boasts stone accents and soft contemporary details blending the exterior and interior beautifully at every turn. It features stunning light fixtures, bamboo and stone flooring, paneled office, theater, top of the line security system as wellas a  garage lift. Completing the package, there is a one bedroom guest house, studio, greenhouse, fruit trees and an incredible outdoor kitchen and entertainment area. California living at its best.

18320 Colina Fuerte, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

18320 Colina Fuerte, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

18320 Colina Fuerte, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

18320 Colina Fuerte, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

18320 Colina Fuerte, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

18320 Colina Fuerte, Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067
 


Today's Top Three San Francisco Luxury Estates
sanfranciscorealestateupdates.com


The median home value in San Francisco is $1,104,000. San Francisco home values have gone up 0.6% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will fall -0.4% within the next year. 

The median home value in Sausalito is $1,203,400. Sausalito home values have gone up 6.6% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 0.9% within the next year. 

The median home value in Tiburon is $2,360,800. Tiburon home values have gone up 2.6% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will fall -0.0% within the next year.

The median home value in Saratoga is $2,331,600. Saratoga home values have gone up 1.1% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will fall -1.1% within the next year.



#1     83 Round Hill Road, Tiburon, CA 94920 with 5 bedrooms, 5 baths, and 
4,890 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $4,850,000.

83 Round Hill Rd, Tiburon, CA 94920

Comfortable resort-style living at this gated estate located at the end of a private drive. This striking contemporary residence is situated on a wooded lot with filtered views of Belvedere Island and the lagoon. Lush landscaping accentuated with terraced gardens and and manicured lawn, combined with magnificent oak trees, extensive walkways and bridges over a seasonal creek, bocce court, pool with water fall, spa and a detached guest house.


83 Round Hill Rd, Tiburon, CA 94920

83 Round Hill Rd, Tiburon, CA 94920

83 Round Hill Rd, Tiburon, CA 94920

83 Round Hill Rd, Tiburon, CA 94920

83 Round Hill Rd, Tiburon, CA 94920

83 Round Hill Rd, Tiburon, CA 94920

83 Round Hill Rd, Tiburon, CA 94920

#2       345 Golden Gate Avenue, Belvedere, CA with 6 bedrooms, 10 baths, and 
8,885 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $16,500,000.

345 Golden Gate Ave, Belvedere, CA 94920

Purchased by Silicon Valley venture capitalist Tom Perkins in 1972/73. Close to downtown Tiburon and ferries to SF. Stone paved motor entry, 3-car garage. Apartment over the garage.  Grand Salon with coffered tray ceilings, linen fold paneling, limestone fireplace and sweeping GGB views. Formal DR to seat 18. Master Suite with majestic views, his and her dressing rooms and baths. Elevator, greenhouse, pool, cabanas.

345 Golden Gate Ave, Belvedere, CA 94920

345 Golden Gate Ave, Belvedere, CA 94920

345 Golden Gate Ave, Belvedere, CA 94920

345 Golden Gate Ave, Belvedere, CA 94920

345 Golden Gate Ave, Belvedere, CA 94920

345 Golden Gate Ave, Belvedere, CA 94920

#3       290 Beech Road, Belvedere, CA 94920 with 5 bedrooms, 4 baths, and 
3516 sq.ft.  is listed for sale at $4,950,000.     

290 Beach Rd, Belvedere, CA 94920

Stunning new contemporary remodel construction. Open modern ambience with beautiful water views. An exciting new project on the water side of Beach Road. 4-5 bedrooms, large open great room with huge glass folding doors to large view deck area. Two car garage with elevator to main house entry. Otherwise easy stairs from the street. View studio guest suite or office in separate area under the garage.

290 Beach Rd, Belvedere, CA 94920

290 Beach Rd, Belvedere, CA 94920

290 Beach Rd, Belvedere, CA 94920

290 Beach Rd, Belvedere, CA 94920



Today's Top Three LA Luxury Estate
larealestateupdates.blogspot.com



The median home value in Los Angeles County is $532,800. Los Angeles County home values have gone up 6.3% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 0.9% within the next year

The median home value in Malibu is $2,500,600. Malibu home values have declined -0.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will fall -0.7% within the next year.

The median home value in Beverly Hills is $2,998,500. Beverly Hills home values have gone up 4.7% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 0.2% within the next year.

The median home value in Bel Air is $3,118,800. Bel Air home values have gone up 3.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 0.7% within the next year.

 #1      30333 Morning View Drive, Malibu, CA 90265 with 8 bedrooms, 9 baths, and 12,340 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $14,995,000.

image-23

Malibu panoramic ocean view equestrian estate set on approx. over 5.4 flat acres. Exceptional access to riding trails, on property and in neighborhood, as well as a short distance to organic grocery, restaurants and Starbucks. Estate is agriculturally zoned and has a picturesque barn with 10 stalls and a 16 ft center isle, combined with flat acreage and big ocean views, make it a one-of-a kind Malibu property in coveted Malibu Park. Private and serene, this estate is grand in scale. Once inside, you are greeted with a spectacular 2 story entry with sweeping double staircase-reminiscent of the Plaza Hotel in NYC. This home features a one of a kind Ballroom that is known to be one of the largest residential rooms in Malibu. The Ballroom is over 3 stories high, has magnificent ocean views, seats over 300 people and has been used by many famous singers as a recording studio because of its unparalleled acoustics. As well, there is approx. over 12,000 square feet of living space, 8 bed and 9 bath. A must see.

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#2       711 N Oakhurst Drive, Beverly Hills, CA 90210 with 5 bedrooms, 6 baths, and 5,535 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $10,995,000.

711 N Oakhurst Dr, Beverly Hills, CA 90210

Located in the prime Beverly Hills Flats, this Elegant Villa is situated on an almost 20,000 sq.ft. lot with an ample circular front driveway and motorcourt with an expansive backyard. Enter into the foyer that leads to the graceful formal living room with fireplace. Exquisite features throughout include hardwood and  marble floors, high coffered and backlit ceilings, and intricate paneling and moldings. Additional public rooms on the main level include the formal dining room, spacious family room with fireplace and built-ins, with a beautiful gourmet kitchen including abundant cabinetry, large center island, professional appliances, and breakfast area with French doors opening to the back patio. The private master suite is situated on the main level & offers a sumptuous bath with dual vanities, spa tub and separate shower. 4 add'l bedroom suites  and powder room complete the interior. The backyard is a private oasis offering great space for relaxation and entertaining with sprawling lawns, pool, spa, patios, and pergola.

711 N Oakhurst Dr, Beverly Hills, CA 90210

711 N Oakhurst Dr, Beverly Hills, CA 90210

711 N Oakhurst Dr, Beverly Hills, CA 90210

711 N Oakhurst Dr, Beverly Hills, CA 90210

711 N Oakhurst Dr, Beverly Hills, CA 90210

711 N Oakhurst Dr, Beverly Hills, CA 90210

711 N Oakhurst Dr, Beverly Hills, CA 90210

#3      20851 Big Rock Drive, Malibu, CA 90265 with 3 bedrooms, 3 baths, and 2,910 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $3,875,000.

20851 Big Rock Dr, Malibu, CA 90265

Located behind a privacy gate in the close-in area known as Big Rock, this stunning Architectural ocean-view home offers a welcoming feeling of privacy, luxury and relaxation. Enjoy the gorgeous coastline views from Santa Monica Bay to Point Dume, which are visible from the great room, spacious wrap-around deck. Living room has a wall of glass that disappears to create a total indoor/outdoor living space. Beautiful natural wood floors and custom wood wall details, high ceilings throughout, stone counters & contemporary style and flair all enhance this very special home. Generous master suite, with ocean views, electronic shades, good closets and a fabulous master bath. Complete with 2 additional bedroom suites, a private office and den/TV room, the home reflects uncompromising standards of home design and construction. A private, outdoor area is enhanced by the lap pool, spa, sunning and BBQ areas. This is a special home that will capture your emotions and live up to your expectations.

20851 Big Rock Dr, Malibu, CA 90265

20851 Big Rock Dr, Malibu, CA 90265

20851 Big Rock Dr, Malibu, CA 90265

20851 Big Rock Dr, Malibu, CA 90265

20851 Big Rock Dr, Malibu, CA 90265

20851 Big Rock Dr, Malibu, CA 90265

Today Top Three Seattle Luxury Estates
seattleluxuryrealestateupdates.com


The median home value in Kirkland is $576,800. Kirkland home values have gone up 14.6%  over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 7.1% within the next year. 

The median home value in Seattle is $592,200. Seattle home values have gone up 15.3% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 6.9% within the next year. 

The median home value in Bellevue is $730,000. Bellevue home values have gone up 13.6% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 5.9% within the next year.

The median home value in Mercer Island is $1,240,400. Mercer Island home values have gone up 12.2% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 6.4% within the next year.

The median home value in Clyde Hill is $2,200,500. Clyde Hill home values have gone up 10.1% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 5.5% within the next year. 

The median home value in Medina is $2,389,900. Medina home values have gone up 12.8% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 5.1% within the next year. 

#1     9033 Lake Washington Blvd. NE, Bellevue, WA 98004 with 4 bedrooms, 4 baths, and 6,802 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $6,200,000.

9033 Lake Washington Blvd Ne, Bellevue, WA 98004

This exciting Lake Washington estate lets you experience vacation living every day while being in the center of beautiful Bellevue. This gated luxury estate is bathed with southern light and views over Meydenbauer Bay. A gated entrance ensures your quiet oasis is your private treasure. Timeless mediterranean style, a gracious floor plan with handsome details offers inspiring possibilities. Imagine sunrise on the terrace, tennis on the court or smores at the beach. Great moorage!

9033 Lake Washington Blvd Ne, Bellevue, WA 98004

9033 Lake Washington Blvd Ne, Bellevue, WA 98004

9033 Lake Washington Blvd Ne, Bellevue, WA 98004

9033 Lake Washington Blvd Ne, Bellevue, WA 98004

9033 Lake Washington Blvd Ne, Bellevue, WA 98004

9033 Lake Washington Blvd Ne, Bellevue, WA 98004

#2     5207 146th Street SE, Bellevue, WA 98006 with 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, and 
3,710 sq.ft. is listed for sale at $2,250,000.

5207 146th Ave Se, Bellevue, WA 98006

Expansive views of Seattle and Olympics views make this 2007 custom built residence truly unique. Inspired by mid-century design with butterfly roof, walls of windows and natural materials to seamlessly blend interior space w/nature. Custom fir cabinets, gourmet kitchen, mahogany floors, ironwood terraces and solar panels. Bellevue's Hilltop Community is an enclave of architecturally designed homes rooted in stewardship for the environment. Amenities include 1.5 mile trail, play field, swimming pool and tennis.

5207 146th Ave Se, Bellevue, WA 98006

5207 146th Ave Se, Bellevue, WA 98006

5207 146th Ave Se, Bellevue, WA 98006

5207 146th Ave Se, Bellevue, WA 98006

5207 146th Ave Se, Bellevue, WA 98006

5207 146th Ave Se, Bellevue, WA 98006

5207 146th Ave Se, Bellevue, WA 98006

5207 146th Ave Se, Bellevue, WA 98006

5207 146th Ave Se, Bellevue, WA 98006

5207 146th Ave Se, Bellevue, WA 98006

#2     313 Prospect, Seattle-Queen Anne, WA 98109 with 5 bedrooms, 6 baths and 4,669 sq.ft is listed for sale at $3,550,000

313 Prospect St, Seattle, WA 98109


Barcelo Homes presents a new luxury condo alternative atop the premier foothill of Queen Anne. Enjoy panoramic views of the Seattle city skyline, Npace needle, and Sound. A sophisticated as ell as functional custom oasis with soaring ceilings, floor-to-ceiling windows, folding glass walls, architectural steel and glass suspended walkway, integrated surround sound system, wine cellar, multi-level decks, designer chefs kitchen, outdoor kitchen, and seamlessly connected indoor and outdoor living areas.

313 Prospect St, Seattle, WA 98109

313 Prospect St, Seattle, WA 98109

313 Prospect St, Seattle, WA 98109

313 Prospect St, Seattle, WA 98109

313 Prospect St, Seattle, WA 98109

313 Prospect St, Seattle, WA 98109

313 Prospect St, Seattle, WA 98109

Today's Mortgage Rates                                                                     12 months
ProductTodayYesterdayChangeLowHigh
30 Yr FRM3.48%3.42%+0.063.34%4.11%
15 Yr FRM2.80%2.75%+0.052.69%3.30%
FHA 30 Year Fixed3.30%3.25%+0.053.15%3.75%
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed3.61%3.56%+0.053.41%3.93%
5/1 Yr ARM2.87%2.85%+0.022.80%3.10%
Updated: 10/4/16 2:54 PM
Mortgage Rates Rise Quickly on Overseas Concerns
Oct 4 2016, 2:54PM

Mortgage Rates moved significantly higher today, relative to recently narrow ranges.  It's enough to bring the most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed quote back up to 3.5% (from 3.375%) on top tier scenarios.  While that might not sound like a lot in and of itself, the risk is that it's the beginning of bigger move that could take months to fully play out.  Of course, if we knew that would happen, then rates would be moving a lot higher right now.  For now, all we have is elevated risk--a call to battle stations, if you will.  It could turn out to be a false alarm, but only time will tell.

The source of today's panic is speculation that Europe is getting closer to its own version of "tapering."  This refers to the gradual reduction in the amount of bonds being purchased by central banks.  In the US, the "taper tantrum" in mid 2013 was the result.  Even though a European version would impact Europe primarily, European bond buying is an important factor in bond market strength around the world.  That strength manifests itself in low Treasury yields and mortgage rates in the US (among other places).  It's safest to favor locking until we can rule out a European reprise of the taper tantrum.  

Loan Originator Perspective


Bonds have broken some support most likely based on rumors out of the Europe that they will begin tapering in the near future.  As of 1pm eastern, only a couple lenders have repriced for the worse as the losses to MBS have been minimal compared to treasuries.  I think locking here is the wise choice.  -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage

Today's Best-Execution Rates

  • 30YR FIXED - 3.5%
  • FHA/VA - 3.25%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 2.75-2.875%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • In the biggest of pictures, "global growth concerns" remain the driving force behind the long-term trend toward lower rates
  • Amid that trend, periodic corrections toward higher rates can and will happen.  These can happen for no apparent reason, or they can be brought on by changes in expectations surrounding central bank policy at home and abroad, as well as geopolitical and systemic risks
  • Time horizon and risk tolerance are 2 variables to consider when it comes to locking.  If you have plenty of time and don't mind losing some ground, set a limit as to how much higher rates could go before you'd lock to avoid further losses, and then float in the hopes of never seeing that limit.
     
  • In the shorter-term, it's always good to look for lock opportunities after rates have been moving lower or sideways repeatedly, especially if they've since begun to move back up in any sort of consistent way.
     
  • As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution(that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method). 
      Thanks for reading today's Blog. Looking for more information?  Have a comment? Call or email me.  Most importantly, have a great day!

      Tom Furino

      email:                 furtree@msn.com 
      phone/text        619-944-8749